Can 2016-17 be the year that Indiana finally advances past the Sweet 16?
It used to be pretty straightforward to look ahead to the next season after Indiana had finished its season in March. Not so much anymore. NBA draft decisions await, grad transfers have hit college hoops by storm and spring signings among high school prospects seem more the norm than the exception they were in the past.
Nonetheless, we move forward with a gander at some roster scenarios that Indiana may settle into this summer and what that means for projections in the 2016-17 season as the Hoosiers look to repeat as Big Ten regular season champions.
Graduation losses
Yogi Ferrell - 17.3 ppg, 5.8 apg, 3.8 rpg, 45.8 FG%, 79-188 3FG (42.0%), 2.2 ast/turnover, 34.7 minutes per game
Hard to imagine an Indiana basketball team without Yogi Ferrell running things at point. A four-year starter, Ferrell's ability to step up his leadership, defense and clutch shot-making is a big reason why Indiana took home a conference title this past season. He was a great fit for the Tom Crean offense with his quickness and ability to drive and dish. When the shot clock was winding down, he was the guy to have the ball. His ability to guard bigger players on defense will be missed as well.
Nick Zeisloft - 6.5 ppg, 1.6 rog, 41.9 FG%, 65-156 3FG (41.7%), 20.1 minutes per game
You don't find many better shooters than Zeisloft, and his ability to get better defensively in the last half of this season was key to some February and March victories. Zeisloft had a great knack for making a couple big 3-point bombs when the team was down on the road. As a mature, fifth-year guy, his leadership off the court this past year will be missed as well.
Max Bielfeldt - 8.2 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 51.6 FG%, 29-64 3FG (45.3%), 17.5 minutes per game
Everyone all thought he would help, but Bielfeldt exceeded everyone's expectations. He scored with his back to the basket, and he scored from the 3-point line. His strength made him play much bigger than his 6-foot-8 height. His outgoing personality will be missed in the locker room.
Ryan Burton - 0.6 ppg, 0.4 rpg, 55.6 FG%, 4-for-7 3FG (57.1%), 3.2 minutes per game
We mention Burton because he saw time in significant games including the three NCAA tournament games. As a fifth-year guy who was 6-foot-7, 215-pounds, Burton had enough size and experience to be a nice insurance policy along the front line. As his shooting numbers show, he could knock down an open look if teams gave him one.
Signings & Commitments
De'Ron Davis - 6'10, 235 pounds, Aurora (Overland), Colorado. Rivals150 ranking: 33
Led his team to another state title this month, so you know he's a winner. Can pop out and hit a 3-pointer or post up on the block. Can swat shots better than anyone Indiana had this year -- he just broke the Colorado state record for blocks in a career.
Curtis Jones - 6'4, 175 pounds, Highland Springs (Huntington Prep, WV), Virginia. Rivals150 ranking: 63
Jones will bring Indiana a shooter who can also help some at point guard. Will need to bulk up but a very smooth player that can score in bunches. From same prep school as Thomas Bryant.
Devonte Green - 6'1, 165 pounds, Brookville (Lutheran), New York. Rivals150 ranking: NR
Green may not be ranked but he's a proven scorer with combo guard skills who has more than held his own against the best of the NYC area and in national AAU action. May be more physically ready to help off the bench than Jones and you could slot him at the one or the two spot.
Grant Gelon - 6'5, 180 pounds, Crown Point (HS), Indiana. Rivals150 ranking: NR
Looks to be in the Zeisloft/Matt Roth mold. A reliable shooter with decent size for guard. Very quick release. Has to improve handle and get much stronger, so may need a couple years before he's ready to be a main rotation guy. Helped lead Crown Point to 4A Regional Finals.
Other additions
Josh Newkirk - 6'1, 185 pounds, Raleigh (Word of God Academy), North Carolina. Transfer from Pittsburgh with 2 years eligibility
A point guard, Newkirk averaged 5.9 points and 2.7 assists as a soph at Pitt in 2014-15. Solid in all respects in that he has good quickness, can shoot it, has had respectable assist-to-turnover numbers and has decent strength for his height.
Newkirk returned to full-go in practice in January, but note he missed quite a bit of time with micro fracture surgery on his his left knee.
James Blackmon Jr. - 6'4, 195 pounds
List Blackmon here since his missed the entirety of conference and postseason play with an ACL knee injury in late December. Before that he averaged 15.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, shot 48.0 percent from the floor including 37-for-80 (46.3 percent) from behind the 3-point line.
We've come up with four of the more likely roster scenarios to analyze:
Scenario One - No departures
PG - Josh Newkirk, Devonte Green, Harrison Niego
2G - James Blackmon, Curtis Jones
3G - Robert Johnson, Collin Hartman, Grant Gelon
F - Troy Williams, OG Anunoby, Juwan Morgan
C - Thomas Bryant, De'Ron Davis, Tim Priller
That's a pretty loaded lineup with the only question marks being how this team manages point guard without Ferrell out there. Blackmon's recovery and how focused he is to becoming better defensively is another factor that jumps out. Would expect that this team would be projected to finish in top two in the league and be top 10 in preseason polls.
The addition of Davis makes this a team more physically able to match-up with the only two teams that really took it to Indiana after year-end - Michigan State and North Carolina, especially if you consider how much better Bryant should be in the fall.
The above roster puts Indiana at 13 scholarships, so no other players could be added.
Scenario Two - Williams leaves for NBA
PG - Josh Newkirk, Devonte Green, Harrison Niego
2G - James Blackmon, Curtis Jones
3G - Robert Johnson, Collin Hartman, Grant Gelon
F - OG Anunoby, Juwan Morgan
C - Thomas Bryant, De'Ron Davis, Tim Priller
Although Troy Williams is unlikely to have as good of a draft outlook as Thomas Bryant, he has been in the program for three years, is closing in on graduation and has already played on a Big Ten title team. His unique athleticism and improving skill set would certainly give him a good contract overseas if he can't make an NBA roster.
Given how opposing coaches often mention how hard he was to guard, the Williams loss may be more of a void than Hoosier fans may be willing to concede. At the same time, the development this past winter of Anunoby and Morgan will not make the 3/4-hybrid spot a position of weakness, especially when you consider the presence of senior Collin Hartman, a guy who has started 36 games the last two seasons. The points may not come from the position as in the past, but defensively it could become more of a team strength.
The Hoosiers still very well may be a top 10 team in preseason polls and top two or three in Big Ten projections. With a roster full of guys with three or four NCAA tourney games under their belt, this is still a team that could go further than the Sweet Sixteen.
Scenario Three - Bryant leaves for NBA
PG - Josh Newkirk, Devonte Green, Harrison Niego
2G - James Blackmon, Curtis Jones
3G - Robert Johnson, Collin Hartman, Grant Gelon
F - Troy Williams, OG Anunoby
C - De'Ron Davis, Juwan Morgan, Tim Priller
Still a team that could contend in Big Ten if Davis comes along as fast as Bryant did this past season. Depth up front, however, would be a question mark. No other player besides Davis is taller than 6-foot-8.
If this happens, expect Indiana to continue to pursue a spring big man signee and especially look to get involved with a quality grad transfer big as the program did last spring in Max Bielfeldt. There would be one open grant for such an addition in this scenario.
Scenario Four - Bryant and Williams leave
PG - Josh Newkirk, Devonte Green, Harrison Niego
2G - James Blackmon, Curtis Jones
3G - Robert Johnson, Collin Hartman, Grant Gelon
F - OG Anunoby, Juwan Morgan
C - De'Ron Davis, Tim Priller
In this scenario the odds are pretty strong that the Hoosiers look to add a couple grad transfers or late signees. But even not considering that hypothetical, it's still an experienced team.
This team, however, would likely need a better draw than Indiana got this month if it wants to go further in the NCAA tournament. A conference projection guess may be in the 3rd or 4th range, without knowing all that has to play out right now on other Big Ten rosters.
Summary
This has a much different feel than after Indiana's last conference title team in 2012-13. The number of players with proven experience that should be back is significantly up from that team, which just had Ferrell and Will Sheehey.
In any of the scenarios, the expectation will definitely be there for Indiana to return to the NCAA tournament and to be a team in the upper third of the Big Ten. More will be expected if the inside game has more than one talented option above 6-foot-8 at the coach's disposal.